Librarians, Trend-Watching, and the Warning Signs of Fads

With each significant new trend in higher education, librarians immediately consider how to effectively update the delivery of outreach, services, and course instruction. For example, artificial intelligence and geographic information systems are exciting opportunities for librarians to embrace a fresh approach to connect learners and faculty with innovative services and support. But as librarians engage in trend-watching, do they need to concern themselves with fads? Are there warning signs that can be watched before committing to or while engaged with a trend? This practice article shares library level experiences with the trend on MOOCs at Penn State University and experiences at other institutions engaged with Makerspaces and Virtual and Augmented Reality to explore teaching and technology trends and to analyze their impact on the broad educational landscape.

Introduction palrap.org excellent customer service can be perceived as just one more thing to do" (Molaro et al., 2015, p. 45). The perception of trend-watching being a task to endure may lead some librarians to adapt later if necessary, but following the leader to catch up with a trend may be a struggle.
A 2018 analysis based on trends identified by the Association of College and Research Libraries detailed to what extent academic libraries have adopted 21st century library trends (Catalano et al., 2018). The authors found that as academic libraries have evolved to meet the changing needs of learners in the digital age, the spotlight is now focused on innovations in teaching, technology, and social media. These practices and services facilitate creativity, engagement, and the ability to access resources anywhere and at any time. The authors also identified that the adoption of trends varied by library type. For example, the Association of Research Libraries (ARL) member libraries were more likely to adopt trends. The information gathered by library type can assist librarians in making a case to adopt or avoid some trends. For instance, the goals of ARL libraries to support research may drive the adoption of trends. And, because ARL libraries are typically larger, they may influence the trajectory of trends. On the other hand, smaller non-ARL libraries are nimbler to engage in trend-watching and implementing new innovations.
But regardless of the library type, what basic trend-watching strategies can be used? As librarians consider what trends to prioritize and follow, King (2018b) lists four trend-watching elements:

Develop a plan
Use the library's strategic plan to build technology goals and objectives.

Learn from library early adopters
Follow innovations in blog posts, articles, and conferences and use those ideas as a basic template that can be modified to fit institutional needs.

Conduct a process review
Examine the technology already in place to determine if something else is needed, then gather information, get feedback, organize responses, and plan next steps.

Address technology overload
Browse time-saving tools like news feeds, search engine alerts and select email lists at a scheduled time to stay on top of updates.
Although each element may appear simplistic, they require considerable effort, buy-in, and sustainability measures. True trends like social media take time to emerge, but there are warning signs to help distinguish emerging trends from fads. King (2018a) also lists the three warning signs of fads:

A service stops being updated
For instance, Google Reader was not significantly updated for years, and Google ultimately dropped the service.

Use of a service is diminished
For example, Myspace accounts were deleted or abandoned as users migrated to Facebook, Twitter, and other (newer and better) social media platforms.

Technology is too difficult to use
As a case in point, Second Life never became popular because of its level of difficulty. Minecraft, however, is easy to use and has attracted a strong virtual world audience.
Librarians may choose to envision these warning signs as evaluative checkpoints. Since "warning signs" may imply an advanced alert, it can be argued that if librarians wait until an innovation declines, the information comes too late to serve as a real warning. Librarians may also note that while a tool or service may be a fad, the idea behind the palrap.org tool or service may be part of an emerging trend. In King's (2018a) example of Google deactivating Google Reader, other news feed services such as the cloud based Feedly, have taken the place of what Google Reader used to provide.
Second Life can also be thought of as a fad that represents a trend-worthy idea. While Second Life did not take off, virtual and augmented realty (VAR) has. HTC Vive, Oculus Quest, and other headset providers offer user-friendly VAR systems designed to enhance the virtual experience.
Not all trends take hold and grow at every institution that adopts them, giving way to a modification of the trend or discontinued efforts in favor of another project deemed more strategic. As librarians consider how the trends versus fads question shapes their activities, they may find different conclusions for varying reasons specific to their individual institutions. Factors may include staffing considerations, budgetary constraints, and administrative support.
In applying King's models, it is important for librarians to decide how it will work best in their libraries.
While related articles on library trends and fads can be found in the literature, it is difficult to determine any clear systematic plan or model that can be compared with King's models. To promote discussion within the library profession, this practice article applies King's (2018b) trend-watching approach and King's (2018a) warning signs of fads to three 21st century innovations: Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), Makerspaces, and VAR. In each case, one or a small sampling of academic libraries have followed a collective shift to emphasize advancements in teaching and technology. Applying King's models help reveal any potential ongoing impact on the broad educational landscape.

Massive Open Online Courses
In 2012, librarians initially thought that MOOCs would become a learning environment that academic libraries would adopt. Not just another online course, MOOCs were 1) massive, with no registration cap, 2) open, with widely available open electronic resources (OERs), 3) online, with no face-to-face requirement; and 4) a course, with a pedagogically designed learning journey (Gore, 2014). The problem was the basic challenge for librarians to integrate and promote open e-sources as they were accustomed to licensed materials. Wu (2013) points out that "MOOCs aspire to offer education and related study materials for free to anyone in the world. Libraries, however, are legally bound by license agreements with vendors to ensure that only eligible users...can access the proprietary electronic journals and online databases that cost millions of dollars a year" (p. 577). Unlike more manageable trends, MOOCs were a staggering game changer. Librarians were faced with global learning communities on a scale never experienced before. King's (2018b) trend-watching strategy to "develop a plan" was central to PSULs adoption of service to MOOC learners and educators. In addition to volunteering as a Coursera Mentor, the librarian also offered LibGuides for learners and educators with free e-resources. But applying King's (2018a)  palrap.org additional burden of managing increased workloads. If librarians need to be experimental and swiftly undertake new and emerging trends, something else will likely need to be elbowed aside. Applying King's (2018b) trend-watching strategies may help by providing a starting place to mitigate workload, targeting partners, and adopting a team approach where possible. For instance, larger institutions may be able to develop a shared plan with their IT units to oversee makerspaces and VAR. As librarians strive for balance, patterns will emerge to help them identify why some innovations gain traction while others fade away.

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But can librarians really separate lasting trends from passing fads? Frustratingly, the answer is not simply black and white. Harder yet, hindsight is 20/20. The good news is that librarians can develop a coordinated plan that incorporates the goals and objectives of their libraries. Molaro et al. (2015) posits that lasting trends will likely have a correlation with the strategic plan of their libraries. For example, a library may implement a five-year strategic plan to enhance STEM programming with makerspaces. Time spent positioning trends in this framework is time well spent.
Passing fads will not likely hold direct importance in a library's strategic plan, however, leveraging fads can be beneficial and attract new users. Librarians will want to be cognizant of how fads may help shape their future activities.

Conclusion
Academic libraries play a large role in helping their institutions adapt to a changing world. They transform themselves, keeping pace with the changing economic, social, and technological aspects of society. They exist to promote access to resources to learn, grow, and discover new things (Rosa & Storey, 2016). It is recommended that librarians continue to keep an eye toward the future and expect emerging trends and associated technologies as commonplace throughout their careers. Their efforts would benefit from being captured in systematic research, with an investigation of multiple universities and trend versus fad applications to aid in reaching a general conclusion on this topic. Similarly, additional research findings may reveal other models to contribute to the literature and contrast with King's models to help librarians assess what will work best for their institutions. Until then, this investigation may implement King's (2018b) trend-watching elements as strategies to stay on top of future technologies and approaches to teaching. The trend-watching elements may also provide a framework for working through staffing and workload issues as well as unexpected challenges. Librarians may also apply King's (2018a) three warning signs of a fad as evaluative checkpoints to help evaluate and strategize trends already in place to leverage future activities. In doing so, librarians will continue to empower those they serve with the latest and best innovations in teaching, technology, and exciting new areas of engagement.